← NFL board3 straight over
Charlie Kolar
LAC @ LA · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 17.5 at FanDuel · median 18.5 ·
48Signal · over 17.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.3 a game recently
- vs LA · ×0.91 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 23.7 yds against 17.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 17.5 · Oct 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -17| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-30 | MIA | 23 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | MIN | 23 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | CLE | 0 under | −17.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | CIN | 17 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | PIT | 19 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NE | 18 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | GB | 0 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LV | 21 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DEN | 37 over | +19.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | KC | 20 over | +2.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | 0 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 17.5 · best price FD -114
- FanDuel 17.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 17.5 -120 (easiest number)
- betPARX 18.5 -109
- BetRivers 18.5 -112
- Bally Bet 18.5 -114
- DraftKings 18.5 -114
- BetMGM 18.5 -115
- DK Pick6 18.5
- PrizePicks 18.5
- ESPN Bet 19.5 +100
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 18.5 to 17.5
- Bally BetMoved from 20.5 to 18.5
- BetMGMMoved from 19.5 to 18.5
- betPARXMoved from 20.5 to 18.5
- BetRiversMoved from 20.5 to 18.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 21.5 to 18.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 21.5 to 18.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 19.5 to 18.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ KC | 20 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DEN | 37 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs LV | 21 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | @ GB | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NE | 18 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs PIT | 19 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs CIN | 17 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ CLE | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 23 | over |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 23 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 10 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LA | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 10 | under |
| 2025-09-22 | vs DET | 22 | over |