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Chase Brown
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 3.5 · median of 7 books ·
52Signal · under 3.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.6 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.8 against 3.5 · over 52%, under 48%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 7 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 11 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 3 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
3.57 books, no line disagreementDK · HR · FD · MGM · FL · PP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 11 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 5 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 7 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NE | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ PIT | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CHI | 8 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYJ | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-16 | vs PIT | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ GB | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DET | 7 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | @ DEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ MIN | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 2 | under |