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Chris Olave
NO vs PIT · Sun 9:30 AM ETReceptions · 6 at PrizePicks · median 5.5 ·
51Signal · over 667% · 6 / 9 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 9Cleared the number in 6 of 9 games, 1 push
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 10.2 a game recently
Expected receptions: 7.2 against 6 · over 51%, under 49% (if it doesn't land exactly on 6)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 6 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | TB | 3 under | −3.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | CAR | 6 push | +0.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYJ | 10 over | +4.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | TEN | 8 over | +2.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | DET | 10 over | +4.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL | 8 over | +2.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | LV | 9 over | +3.0 |
| 2026-10-05 | ATL | 8 over | +2.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIN | 4 under | −2.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYG | 4 under | −2.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 9 | 67% over | +1.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 67% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
10 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 5.5 · best price PX2, DK -148
- betPARX 5.5 -148 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- DraftKings 5.5 -148 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 5.5 -150 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 5.5 -150 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -150 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 5.5 -154 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 5.5 -155 (easiest number)
- Fliff 5.5 -160 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 6
- BetMGM 6.5 +115
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 6.5 to 5.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 6.5 to 5.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 5.5 to 6
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ NYG | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs MIN | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-05 | vs ATL | 8 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LV | 9 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ BAL | 8 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ DET | 10 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ TEN | 8 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NYJ | 10 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CAR | 6 | push |
| 2025-12-07 | @ TB | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ MIA | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs ATL | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ CAR | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ LA | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TB | 8 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ CHI | 5 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs NE | 6 | push |
| 2025-10-05 | vs NYG | 7 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ BUF | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ SEA | 10 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SF | 6 | push |
| 2025-09-07 | vs ARI | 7 | over |