← NFL board3 straight over
Corey Kiner
NE @ CHI · Thu 8:15 PM ETRushing Yards · 13.5 at ESPN Bet · median 14.5 ·
56%under5 / 9 · last 10
4 / 9Cleared the number in 4 of 9 games, 1 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 6.2 a game recently
- vs CHI · ×1.02 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 28.2 yds against 13.5 · over 55%, under 45%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 13.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -43 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-12-14 | HOU | 11 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ATL | 32 over | +18.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CIN | 2 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LA | 13 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | SEA | 11 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PIT | 0 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | JAX | 18 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LV | 52 over | +38.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ | 57 over | +43.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 9 | 56% under | -8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 56% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
12 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 15.5
- ESPN Bet 13.5
- DraftKings 14.5
- FanDuel 14.5
- BetMGM 14.5
- Fliff 14.5
- Hard Rock Bet 14.5
- DK Pick6 14.5
- PrizePicks 14.5
- Underdog 14.5
- betPARX 15.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 15.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 15.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 13.5 to 14.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 13.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs NYJ | 57 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs LV | 52 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ JAX | 18 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | @ SEA | 11 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LA | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CIN | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs ATL | 32 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ HOU | 11 | under |