Cyrus Allen

KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ET

Receptions · 0.5 · median of 5 books ·

49Signal · under 0.567% · 2 / 3 · last 10 · the formula's chance

1 / 3

Rashee Rice WR is listed Out (hamstring). He had 19% of KC's targets this season, 5.7 a game over 3.

Cyrus's targets without Rashee Rice: 1.5 a game (2 games), against 1.0 with him (1).

The game history below does not account for this absence.

How the formula reads this game

targets: 1.3 a game recently → 2.2 this game
Rice out · +0.9 targets (16% of his 5.7)

Expected receptions: 1.1 against 0.5 · over 51%, under 49%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.

Last 10 games against 0.5 · Sep 14, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -1.5 on the under

Each game against 0.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2026-09-14	DEN	0 under	−0.5
2026-10-04	LV	0 under	−0.5
2026-10-18	LAC	2 over	+1.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	2 / 3	67% under	-0.2
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 67% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

0.55 books, no line disagreementFD · HR · FL · DK · MGM

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 0.5
2026-10-18	vs LAC	2	over
2026-10-04	@ LV	0	under
2026-09-14	vs DEN	0	under