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Daniel Jones
IND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing Yards · 197.5 · median of 11 books ·
49Signal · over 197.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 36.3 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 215.0 yds against 197.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 197.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -137| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | ATL | 255 over | +57.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | KC | 181 under | −16.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | HOU | 201 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | JAX | 60 under | −137.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL | 166 under | −31.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | KC | 210 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU | 235 over | +37.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | WAS | 143 under | −54.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PIT | 267 over | +69.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TEN | 269 over | +71.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 194.5
- ESPN Bet 194.5 -120 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 196.5 -111
- FanDuel 196.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 196.5 -115
- Fliff 196.5 -120
- BetMGM 197.5 -115
- Bally Bet 199.5 -113
- betPARX 199.5 -113
- BetRivers 199.5 -114
- PrizePicks 199.5
- Underdog 199.5
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 199.5 to 194.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 201.5 to 196.5
- FliffMoved from 198.5 to 196.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 198.5 to 196.5
- Bally BetMoved from 198.5 to 199.5
- betPARXMoved from 198.5 to 199.5
- BetRiversMoved from 198.5 to 199.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 187.5 to 199.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 197.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs TEN | 269 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ PIT | 267 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ WAS | 143 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs HOU | 235 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ KC | 210 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BAL | 166 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ JAX | 60 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs HOU | 201 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ KC | 181 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ATL | 255 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | 342 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TEN | 272 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ LAC | 288 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs ARI | 212 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs LV | 212 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LA | 262 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TEN | 228 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs DEN | 316 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs MIA | 272 | over |