← NFL board
Jonathan Taylor
IND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 16.5 · median of 10 books ·
52Signal · under 16.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.8 a game recently
- vs MIN · ×0.96 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 26.1 yds against 16.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 16.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -14| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | SEA | 14 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | SF | 33 over | +16.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | JAX | 14 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | HOU | 13 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL | 23 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | KC | 40 over | +23.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU | 4 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | WAS | 2 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PIT | 37 over | +20.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TEN | 57 over | +40.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 4 yds spread
- Fanatics 15.5
- betPARX 16.5
- BetRivers 16.5
- DraftKings 16.5
- Bally Bet 16.5
- PrizePicks 16.5
- Hard Rock Bet 17.5
- FanDuel 17.5
- Fliff 17.5
- ESPN Bet 19.5
Line movement
- FliffMoved from 16.5 to 17.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 16.5 to 17.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 17.5 to 19.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs TEN | 57 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ PIT | 37 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ WAS | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs HOU | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ KC | 40 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BAL | 23 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ HOU | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs JAX | 14 | under |
| 2025-12-22 | vs SF | 33 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ SEA | 14 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ JAX | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs HOU | 36 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ KC | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ATL | 42 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | 12 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TEN | 21 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ LAC | 38 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs ARI | 14 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs LV | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LA | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TEN | 16 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs DEN | 50 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs MIA | 27 | over |