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Daniel Jones
IND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 9.5 at Underdog ·
56Signal · under 9.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 2.8 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 9.2 yds against 9.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 9.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -43 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | ATL | 53 over | +43.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | KC | 16 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | HOU | 1 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | JAX | 4 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL | 4 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | KC | 10 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU | 5 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | WAS | 2 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PIT | 4 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TEN | 30 over | +20.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
2 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 10.5
- Underdog 9.5
- PrizePicks 10.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs TEN | 30 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ PIT | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ WAS | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs HOU | 5 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ KC | 10 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BAL | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ JAX | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs HOU | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ KC | 16 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ATL | 53 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ LAC | 7 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs ARI | 20 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs LV | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LA | -1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TEN | 27 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs DEN | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs MIA | 26 | over |