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Dawson Knox
BUF vs BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 13.5 at PrizePicks ·
67Signal · under 13.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
PrizePicks 13.5 ·
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.7 a game recently
- vs BAL · ×0.95 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 5.7 yds against 13.5 · over 33%, under 67%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 13.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -23 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | NE | 37 over | +23.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CLE | 10 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | PHI | 30 over | +16.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYJ | 24 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | HOU | 7 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-17 | DET | 5 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LAC | 5 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NE | 13 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | LA | 6 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LV | 0 under | −13.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | 0 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
13.5PrizePicks· one book
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 13.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ LV | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-12 | @ LA | 6 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NE | 13 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LAC | 5 | under |
| 2026-09-17 | vs DET | 5 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ HOU | 7 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs NYJ | 24 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs PHI | 30 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CLE | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NE | 37 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs CIN | 93 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ PIT | 28 | over |
| 2025-11-20 | @ HOU | 17 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs TB | 23 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIA | 37 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs KC | 30 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ CAR | 15 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | @ ATL | 19 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs NE | 15 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs NO | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NYJ | 19 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs BAL | 20 | over |