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Derrick Henry
BAL vs CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 6.5 ·
51Signal · under 6.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
PrizePicks 6.5 ·
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.7 a game recently
- vs CIN · ×1.05 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 11.2 yds against 6.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 6.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -12 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CIN | 0 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NE | 0 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | GB | 0 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PIT | 0 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | IND | 19 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NO | 19 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DAL | 0 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TEN | 6 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | ATL | 18 over | +11.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CLE | 2 under | −4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | 0 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
6.5PrizePicks· one book
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 6.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ CLE | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ ATL | 18 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs TEN | 6 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DAL | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs NO | 19 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ IND | 19 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PIT | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-27 | @ GB | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NE | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ CIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs PIT | 8 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs CIN | 44 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NYJ | 24 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ CLE | 19 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 9 | over |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LA | 8 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ KC | 16 | over |
| 2025-09-22 | vs DET | 7 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CLE | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ BUF | 13 | over |