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Deshaun Watson
CLE @ PIT · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing Yards · 204.5 at betPARX · median 208.5 ·
47Signal · over 204.557% · 4 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 7Cleared the number in 4 of 7 games, 3 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 30.0 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 211.7 yds against 204.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 204.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -60| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | JAX | 205 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | TB | 238 over | +33.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CAR | 144 under | −60.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | PIT | 268 over | +63.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NYJ | 155 under | −49.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL | 164 under | −40.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | TEN | 308 over | +103.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 7 | 57% over | +7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 57% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 6 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 204.5 · best price BB, MGM, PX2 -115
- Bally Bet 204.5 -115 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetMGM 204.5 -115 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 204.5 -115 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 204.5 -117 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 208.5 -111
- Fliff 208.5 -120
- DK Pick6 208.5
- ESPN Bet 209.5 -105
- Hard Rock Bet 209.5 -115
- FanDuel 210.5 -114
- PrizePicks 210.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 202.5 to 208.5
- FliffMoved from 207.5 to 208.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 199.5 to 209.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 208.5 to 209.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 206.5 to 210.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 204.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ TEN | 308 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs BAL | 164 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NYJ | 155 | under |
| 2026-10-01 | vs PIT | 268 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CAR | 144 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ TB | 238 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ JAX | 205 | over |