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Devaughn Vele
NO vs PIT · Sun 9:30 AM ETReceptions · 3.5 at ESPN Bet · median 4.5 ·
51Signal · over 3.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.2 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.7 against 3.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | ATL | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | MIA | 8 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | TB | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CAR | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | DET | 7 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LV | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | ATL | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIN | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYG | 3 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +1.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 3.5 · best price MGM, ESPN -160
- BetMGM 3.5 -160 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- ESPN Bet 3.5 -160 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 3.5 -165 (easiest number)
- Fliff 3.5 -170 (easiest number)
- betPARX 4.5 +128
- BetRivers 4.5 +128
- DraftKings 4.5 +128
- FanDuel 4.5 +124
- Bally Bet 4.5 +123
Line movement
- FliffMoved from 4.5 to 3.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 4.5 to 3.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ NYG | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs MIN | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-05 | vs ATL | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LV | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ BAL | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ DET | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CAR | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ TB | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ MIA | 8 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs ATL | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ CAR | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TB | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs NYG | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SF | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs ARI | 1 | under |