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DeVonta Smith
PHI vs DAL · Mon 8:15 PM ETReceiving Yards · 70.5 · median of 6 books ·
53Signal · under 70.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 10.3 a game recently
- vs DAL · ×1.06 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 82.5 yds against 70.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 70.5 · Nov 28, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -46 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | CHI | 48 under | −22.5 |
| 2025-12-08 | LAC | 37 under | −33.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LV | 50 under | −20.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | WAS | 42 under | −28.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | BUF | 25 under | −45.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | WAS | 52 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | WAS | 53 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | TEN | 117 over | +46.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | CHI | 65 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CAR | 75 over | +4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +14 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
6 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 71.5
- FanDuel 70.5
- Hard Rock Bet 70.5
- PrizePicks 70.5
- DraftKings 71.5 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 71.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 71.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 66.5 to 70.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 70.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs CAR | 75 | over |
| 2026-09-28 | @ CHI | 65 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ TEN | 117 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs WAS | 53 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs WAS | 52 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ BUF | 25 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | @ WAS | 42 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LV | 50 | under |
| 2025-12-08 | @ LAC | 37 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | vs CHI | 48 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ DAL | 89 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs DET | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-10 | @ GB | 69 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYG | 84 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ MIN | 183 | over |
| 2025-10-09 | @ NYG | 49 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DEN | 114 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ TB | 29 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs LA | 60 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ KC | 53 | under |
| 2025-09-04 | vs DAL | 16 | under |