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Drake Maye
NE @ CHI · Thu 8:15 PM ETCarries · 4.5 at ESPN Bet · median 5.5 ·
50%even5 / 10 · last 10
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 5.7 a game recently
Expected carries: 5.7 against 4.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | BUF | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | BAL | 10 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYJ | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIA | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | SEA | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PIT | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | JAX | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF | 8 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LV | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ | 4 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +1.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
8 books · 1 spread
- ESPN Bet 4.5
- betPARX 5.5
- DraftKings 5.5
- Bally Bet 5.5
- Hard Rock Bet 5.5
- Fliff 5.5
- PrizePicks 5.5
- Underdog 5.5
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 6.5 to 4.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs NYJ | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs LV | 7 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BUF | 8 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ JAX | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | @ SEA | 7 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | 10 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BUF | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-13 | vs NYJ | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ TB | 7 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs ATL | 8 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CLE | 7 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ TEN | 8 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NO | 9 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BUF | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CAR | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs PIT | 7 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIA | 10 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs LV | 4 | under |