← NFL board
Drew Sample
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 4.5 · median of 2 books ·
51Signal · over 4.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.0 a game recently
- vs BAL · ×0.94 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 7.5 yds against 4.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Oct 12, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -6| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | GB | -2 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | NE | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | BAL | 14 over | +9.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 12 over | +7.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 31 over | +26.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 8 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 17 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 19 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 5 over | +0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
2 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 4.5
- Underdog 4.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 5.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 19 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 17 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 8 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 31 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 12 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 14 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NE | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ GB | -2 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DET | -1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ MIN | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 7 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 0 | under |