Dylan Sampson

CLE @ TEN · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 10.5 · median of 7 books ·

51Signal · over 10.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 10

How the formula reads this game

targets: 2.9 a game recently
vs TEN · ×1.04 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 21.8 yds against 10.5 · over 51%, under 49%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 0 this season.

Last 10 games against 10.5 · Oct 12, 2025 – Jan 4, 2026

Worst miss -10

Each game against 10.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-10-12	PIT	12 over	+1.5
2025-10-19	MIA	9 under	−1.5
2025-10-26	NE	29 over	+18.5
2025-11-09	NYJ	3 under	−7.5
2025-11-16	BAL	0 under	−10.5
2025-11-23	LV	59 over	+48.5
2025-11-30	SF	0 under	−10.5
2025-12-07	TEN	64 over	+53.5
2025-12-28	PIT	0 under	−10.5
2026-01-04	CIN	12 over	+1.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 10	50%	+8
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card

Book Range

7 books · 1 yds spread

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 10.5
2026-01-04	@ CIN	12	over
2025-12-28	vs PIT	0	under
2025-12-07	vs TEN	64	over
2025-11-30	vs SF	0	under
2025-11-23	@ LV	59	over
2025-11-16	vs BAL	0	under
2025-11-09	@ NYJ	3	under
2025-10-26	@ NE	29	over
2025-10-19	vs MIA	9	under
2025-10-12	@ PIT	12	over
2025-10-05	vs MIN	6	under
2025-09-28	@ DET	0	under
2025-09-21	vs GB	0	under
2025-09-14	@ BAL	13	over
2025-09-07	vs CIN	64	over