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Dylan Sampson
CLE @ TEN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 11.5 at DraftKings · median 10.5 ·
50Signal · over 11.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.9 a game recently
- vs TEN · ×1.04 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 21.8 yds against 11.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 0 this season.
Last 10 games against 11.5 · Oct 12, 2025 – Jan 4, 2026
Worst miss -11| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | PIT | 12 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | MIA | 9 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | NE | 29 over | +17.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | NYJ | 3 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | BAL | 0 under | −11.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | LV | 59 over | +47.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | SF | 0 under | −11.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | TEN | 64 over | +52.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | PIT | 0 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CIN | 12 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
7 books · 1 yds spread
- FanDuel 10.5
- Hard Rock Bet 10.5
- BetMGM 10.5
- Fliff 10.5
- PrizePicks 10.5
- DraftKings 11.5
- DK Pick6 11.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 9.5 to 11.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 9.5 to 11.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 11.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | @ CIN | 12 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs PIT | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs TEN | 64 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs SF | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LV | 59 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs BAL | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ NYJ | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NE | 29 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs MIA | 9 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ PIT | 12 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIN | 6 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ DET | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs GB | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ BAL | 13 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs CIN | 64 | over |