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Emeka Egbuka
TB @ CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 40.5 ·
55Signal · under 40.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
PrizePicks 40.5 ·
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 8.2 a game recently
Expected receiving yards: 40.0 yds against 40.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 40.5 · Dec 11, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -23 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | ATL | 64 over | +23.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CAR | 40 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | MIA | 20 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | CAR | 8 under | −32.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 63 over | +22.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 16 under | −24.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | 62 over | +21.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | GB | 13 under | −27.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | DAL | 38 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PIT | 48 over | +7.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
40.5PrizePicks· one book
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 39.5 to 40.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 40.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs PIT | 48 | over |
| 2026-10-08 | @ DAL | 38 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs GB | 13 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | 62 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 16 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 63 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | vs CAR | 8 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ MIA | 20 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CAR | 40 | under |
| 2025-12-11 | vs ATL | 64 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs NO | 15 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ARI | 42 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LA | 32 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ BUF | 40 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NE | 115 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NO | 35 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | @ DET | 58 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs SF | 24 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ SEA | 163 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs PHI | 101 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NYJ | 85 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | @ HOU | 29 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ ATL | 67 | over |