Emmett Johnson

KC vs NYJ · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Rush + Rec Yards · 25.5 ·

47Signal · under 25.557% · 4 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance

3 / 7

Underdog 25.5 ·

How the formula reads this game

carries: 2.9 a game recently
targets: 2.3 a game recently
vs NYJ · ×0.99 yds per carry

Expected rush + rec yards: 44.7 yds against 25.5 · over 53%, under 47%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.

Last 10 games against 25.5 · Sep 14, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026

Worst miss -117 on the under

Each game against 25.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2026-09-14	DEN	68 over	+42.5
2026-09-20	IND	35 over	+9.5
2026-09-27	MIA	17 under	−8.5
2026-10-04	LV	10 under	−15.5
2026-10-18	LAC	24 under	−1.5
2026-10-25	SEA	17 under	−8.5
2026-11-01	DEN	143 over	+117.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	4 / 7	57% under	-19
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 57% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range

25.5Underdog· one book

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 25.5
2026-11-01	@ DEN	143	over
2026-10-25	@ SEA	17	under
2026-10-18	vs LAC	24	under
2026-10-04	@ LV	10	under
2026-09-27	@ MIA	17	under
2026-09-20	vs IND	35	over
2026-09-14	vs DEN	68	over