← NFL board3 straight over
Eric Saubert
SEA vs LAC · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 0.5 ·
51Signal · over 0.583% · 5 / 6 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 6Cleared the number in 5 of 6 games, 4 without a result
BetMGM 0.5 +105 ·
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.6 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.0 against 0.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 2 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Sep 21, 2025 – Sep 27, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-09-21 | NO | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | IND | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CAR | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SF | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ARI | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | WAS | 1 over | +0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 6 | 83% over | +0.5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 83% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Book Range
0.5BetMGM+105· one book
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | @ WAS | 1 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ARI | 1 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | 1 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 1 | over |