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Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceiving Yards · 92.5 · median of 10 books ·
48Signal · over 92.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 11.0 a game recently
- vs KC · ×0.96 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 114.5 yds against 92.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 92.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -20| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | IND | 113 over | +20.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | LA | 96 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CAR | 72 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SF | 84 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | NE | 122 over | +29.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ARI | 155 over | +62.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | WAS | 128 over | +35.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LAC | 76 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SF | 102 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | DEN | 134 over | +41.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +16 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 89.5
- ESPN Bet 89.5 -125 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 91.5 -111
- BetMGM 91.5 -115
- FanDuel 92.5 -114
- betPARX 92.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 92.5 -115
- BetRivers 92.5 -117
- Fliff 92.5 -120
- Bally Bet 92.5 -121
- PrizePicks 92.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 92.5 to 91.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 92.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | @ DEN | 134 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs SF | 102 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs LAC | 76 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ WAS | 128 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ARI | 155 | over |
| 2026-09-09 | vs NE | 122 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | 84 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | 72 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | vs LA | 96 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | 113 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | 92 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs MIN | 23 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ TEN | 167 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 105 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 93 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 129 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | vs HOU | 123 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ JAX | 162 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TB | 132 | over |
| 2025-09-25 | @ ARI | 79 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 96 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ PIT | 103 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs SF | 124 | over |