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Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceptions · 6.5 · median of 9 books ·
52Signal · over 6.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 11.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 8.2 against 6.5 · over 52%, under 48%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 6.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | IND | 7 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | LA | 8 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CAR | 9 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SF | 6 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | NE | 8 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ARI | 9 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | WAS | 10 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LAC | 5 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SF | 5 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | DEN | 12 over | +5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +1.4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
6.59 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · BB · DK · ESPN · HR · MGM · FD · FL· best price at 6.5: PX2 -125
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 6.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | @ DEN | 12 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs SF | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs LAC | 5 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ WAS | 10 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ARI | 9 | over |
| 2026-09-09 | vs NE | 8 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | 6 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | 9 | over |
| 2025-12-18 | vs LA | 8 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | 7 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs MIN | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ TEN | 8 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 8 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | vs HOU | 8 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ JAX | 8 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TB | 8 | over |
| 2025-09-25 | @ ARI | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ PIT | 8 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs SF | 9 | over |