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Gavin Bartholomew
MIN @ GB · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 20.5 at DraftKings ·
56Signal · under 20.567% · 2 / 3 · last 10 · the formula's chance
1 / 3Cleared the number in 1 of 3 games, 7 without a result
- Kyler Murray QB is listed Out (hamstring). He threw 89% of MIN's passes this season.
- T.J. Hockenson TE is listed Out (wrist). He had 21% of MIN's targets this season, 5.5 a game over 8.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.7 a game recently → 4.2 this game
- Hockenson out · +1.0 targets (19% of his 5.5)
- Murray out · ×1.14 targets
- vs GB · ×0.95 yds per target
- Heavier load · ×0.77 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 19.4 yds against 20.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 20.5 · Oct 4, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -12 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-10-04 | MIA | 4 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NO | 33 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | IND | 17 under | −3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 2 / 3 | 67% under | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 67% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
12 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 21.5
- betPARX 19.5
- BetRivers 19.5
- Bally Bet 19.5
- DraftKings 20.5
- Hard Rock Bet 20.5
- Fliff 20.5
- Dabble 20.5
- DK Pick6 20.5
- PrizePicks 20.5
- Underdog 20.5
- BetMGM 21.5 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 21.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DabbleMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 21.5 to 20.5
- FliffMoved from 21.5 to 20.5
- UnderdogMoved from 21.5 to 20.5
- BetMGMMoved from 23.5 to 21.5
- FanDuelMoved from 20.5 to 21.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 20.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs IND | 17 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NO | 33 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs MIA | 4 | under |