Aaron Jones

MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 14.5 · median of 9 books ·

56Signal · under 14.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

4 / 10

How the formula reads this game

targets: 3.6 a game recently

Expected receiving yards: 14.4 yds against 14.5 · over 44%, under 56%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 14.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026

Worst miss -19 on the under

Each game against 14.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-11-30	SEA	22 over	+7.5
2025-12-07	WAS	0 under	−14.5
2025-12-14	DAL	31 over	+16.5
2025-12-21	NYG	8 under	−6.5
2025-12-25	DET	10 under	−4.5
2026-09-13	GB	0 under	−14.5
2026-09-20	CHI	0 under	−14.5
2026-09-27	TB	34 over	+19.5
2026-10-04	MIA	34 over	+19.5
2026-10-11	NO	4 under	−10.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	6 / 10	60% under	0
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

14.59 books, no line disagreementPX2 · FD · BR · HR · DK · BB · FL · PP · UD

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 14.5
2026-10-11	@ NO	4	under
2026-10-04	vs MIA	34	over
2026-09-27	@ TB	34	over
2026-09-20	@ CHI	0	under
2026-09-13	vs GB	0	under
2025-12-25	vs DET	10	under
2025-12-21	@ NYG	8	under
2025-12-14	@ DAL	31	over
2025-12-07	vs WAS	0	under
2025-11-30	@ SEA	22	over
2025-11-23	@ GB	16	over
2025-11-16	vs CHI	11	under
2025-11-09	vs BAL	22	over
2025-11-02	@ DET	20	over
2025-10-23	@ LAC	15	over
2025-09-14	vs ATL	0	under
2025-09-08	@ CHI	44	over