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Gavin Bartholomew
MIN @ GB · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 2.5 at Fliff ·
49Signal · under 2.567% · 2 / 3 · last 10 · the formula's chance
1 / 3Cleared the number in 1 of 3 games, 7 without a result
- Kyler Murray QB is listed Out (hamstring). He threw 89% of MIN's passes this season.
- T.J. Hockenson TE is listed Out (wrist). He had 21% of MIN's targets this season, 5.5 a game over 8.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.7 a game recently → 4.2 this game
- Hockenson out · +1.0 targets (19% of his 5.5)
- Murray out · ×1.14 targets
Expected receptions: 3.7 against 2.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 2.5 · Oct 4, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -2.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-10-04 | MIA | 1 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NO | 5 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | IND | 1 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 2 / 3 | 67% under | +0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 67% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
2.511 books, no line disagreementMGM · PX2 · DK · BR · BB · FL · HR · FD · PK6 · PP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs IND | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NO | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs MIA | 1 | under |