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Greg Dulcich
MIA @ NYJ · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 2.5 at DraftKings ·
50Signal · over 2.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.3 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.3 against 2.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 2.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | NO | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | NYJ | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-15 | PIT | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CIN | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | TB | 5 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NE | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LV | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SF | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | KC | 5 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CIN | 4 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
2.58 books, no line disagreementHR · DK · FD · BB · PX2 · BR · FL · MGM· best price at 2.5: HR +125
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | vs CIN | 4 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs KC | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ SF | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LV | 2 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ NE | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs TB | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs CIN | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-15 | @ PIT | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ NYJ | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs NO | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs WAS | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs BUF | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-30 | vs BAL | 5 | over |