Malik Willis

MIA vs DET · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Carries · 5.5 · median of 2 books ·

45Signal · over 5.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

6 / 10

How the formula reads this game

carries: 5.1 a game recently

Expected carries: 5.1 against 5.5 · over 45%, under 55%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.

Last 10 games against 5.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026

Worst miss -4.5

Each game against 5.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-11-23	MIN	2 under	−3.5
2025-12-20	CHI	10 over	+4.5
2025-12-27	BAL	9 over	+3.5
2026-09-13	LV	6 over	+0.5
2026-09-20	SF	2 under	−3.5
2026-09-27	KC	9 over	+3.5
2026-10-04	MIN	2 under	−3.5
2026-10-11	CIN	8 over	+2.5
2026-10-25	NYJ	8 over	+2.5
2026-11-01	NE	1 under	−4.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	6 / 10	60% over	+0.2
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card

Book Range

5.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 5.5
2026-11-01	vs NE	1	under
2026-10-25	@ NYJ	8	over
2026-10-11	vs CIN	8	over
2026-10-04	@ MIN	2	under
2026-09-27	vs KC	9	over
2026-09-20	@ SF	2	under
2026-09-13	@ LV	6	over
2025-12-27	vs BAL	9	over
2025-12-20	@ CHI	10	over
2025-11-23	vs MIN	2	under
2025-11-16	@ NYG	1	under