J.J. McCarthy

NYG @ PHI · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Rushing Yards · 13.5 · median of 2 books ·

59Signal · over 13.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 10

How the formula reads this game

carries: 1.7 a game recently

Expected rushing yards: 9.7 yds against 13.5 · over 41%, under 59%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.

Last 10 games against 13.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026

Worst miss -13

Each game against 13.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-11-09	BAL	48 over	+34.5
2025-11-16	CHI	0 under	−13.5
2025-11-23	GB	10 under	−3.5
2025-12-07	WAS	19 over	+5.5
2025-12-14	DAL	15 over	+1.5
2025-12-21	NYG	20 over	+6.5
2026-01-04	GB	7 under	−6.5
2026-10-11	WAS	2 under	−11.5
2026-10-18	NO	26 over	+12.5
2026-10-25	HOU	1 under	−12.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 10	50%	+1
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

13.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 13.5
2026-10-25	@ HOU	1	under
2026-10-18	vs NO	26	over
2026-10-11	@ WAS	2	under
2026-01-04	vs GB	7	under
2025-12-21	@ NYG	20	over
2025-12-14	@ DAL	15	over
2025-12-07	vs WAS	19	over
2025-11-23	@ GB	10	under
2025-11-16	vs CHI	0	under
2025-11-09	vs BAL	48	over
2025-11-02	@ DET	12	under
2025-09-14	vs ATL	25	over
2025-09-08	@ CHI	25	over