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Jahmyr Gibbs
DET vs GB · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 · median of 9 books ·
50Signal · over 4.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 5.4 against 4.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Dec 4, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -2.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | DAL | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LA | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | PIT | 10 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | MIN | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CHI | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NO | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-17 | BUF | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NYJ | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CAR | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | ARI | 5 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
4.59 books, no line disagreementESPN · HR · DK · FD · MGM · PX2 · BR · FL · BB· best price at 4.5: ESPN, HR -140
Line movement
- FliffMoved from 5.5 to 4.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 5.5 to 4.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ ARI | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CAR | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs NYJ | 7 | over |
| 2026-09-17 | @ BUF | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs NO | 5 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ CHI | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ MIN | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs PIT | 10 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ LA | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-04 | vs DAL | 7 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs GB | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NYG | 11 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ PHI | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ WAS | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs MIN | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | vs TB | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ KC | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CIN | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CLE | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-22 | @ BAL | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CHI | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ GB | 10 | over |