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Jeremy McNichols
WAS vs PHI · Sun 8:20 PM ETRushing Yards · 21.5 at PrizePicks · median 20.5 ·
70Signal · under 21.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 3.6 a game recently
- vs PHI · ×0.99 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 8.7 yds against 21.5 · over 29%, under 71%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 1 this season.
Last 10 games against 21.5 · Nov 2, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -8 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | SEA | 0 under | −21.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | DET | 25 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | MIA | 13 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | DEN | 30 over | +8.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | MIN | 0 under | −21.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NYG | 6 under | −15.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | PHI | 3 under | −18.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DAL | -2 under | −23.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PHI | 3 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | SF | 13 under | −8.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +12 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 21.5
- Hard Rock Bet 19.5
- DraftKings 20.5
- FanDuel 20.5
- ESPN Bet 20.5
- betPARX 20.5
- BetRivers 20.5
- BetMGM 20.5
- Bally Bet 20.5
- DK Pick6 20.5
- PrizePicks 21.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 23.5 to 19.5
- Bally BetMoved from 22.5 to 20.5
- BetMGMMoved from 25.5 to 20.5
- betPARXMoved from 22.5 to 20.5
- BetRiversMoved from 22.5 to 20.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 23.5 to 20.5
- FanDuelMoved from 23.5 to 20.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 27.5 to 20.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 23.5 to 21.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 21.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | @ SF | 13 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PHI | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DAL | -2 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | vs PHI | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NYG | 6 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ MIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs DEN | 30 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIA | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs DET | 25 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs SEA | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-27 | @ KC | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ DAL | 22 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | vs CHI | 5 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ LAC | 6 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ ATL | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs LV | 78 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs NYG | 25 | over |