Joe Burrow

CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Interceptions Thrown · 0.5 at Fliff ·

54Signal · over 0.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 10

How the formula reads this game

pass attempts: 37.8 a game recently

Expected interceptions thrown: 0.6 against 0.5 · over 46%, under 54%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 0.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026

Worst miss -0.5

Each game against 0.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-12-07	BUF	2 over	+1.5
2025-12-14	BAL	2 over	+1.5
2025-12-21	MIA	0 under	−0.5
2025-12-28	ARI	0 under	−0.5
2026-01-04	CLE	1 over	+0.5
2026-09-13	TB	1 over	+0.5
2026-09-20	HOU	0 under	−0.5
2026-09-27	PIT	0 under	−0.5
2026-10-04	JAX	2 over	+1.5
2026-10-11	MIA	0 under	−0.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 10	50%	+0.3
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range

0.56 books, no line disagreementMGM · DK · FL · HR · PP · UD

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 0.5
2026-10-11	@ MIA	0	under
2026-10-04	vs JAX	2	over
2026-09-27	@ PIT	0	under
2026-09-20	@ HOU	0	under
2026-09-13	vs TB	1	over
2026-01-04	vs CLE	1	over
2025-12-28	vs ARI	0	under
2025-12-21	@ MIA	0	under
2025-12-14	vs BAL	2	over
2025-12-07	@ BUF	2	over
2025-11-27	@ BAL	0	under
2025-09-14	vs JAX	0	under
2025-09-07	@ CLE	0	under