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Joe Burrow
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETPass Attempts · 36.5 at Fliff ·
52Signal · under 36.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 37.8 a game recently
Expected pass attempts: 37.8 against 36.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 36.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -17.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 36 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 39 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 32 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 31 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 39 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 35 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | 31 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 37 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 54 over | +17.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 32 under | −4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 36.5
- BetMGM 35.5
- Fanatics 35.5
- betPARX 36.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 36.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 36.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 36.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 36.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 36.5 (easiest number)
- Underdog 36.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 35.5 to 36.5
- betPARXMoved from 35.5 to 36.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 35.5 to 36.5
- FliffMoved from 35.5 to 36.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 35.5 to 36.5
- UnderdogMoved from 35.5 to 36.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 36.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 32 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 54 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 37 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | 31 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 35 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 39 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 31 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 32 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 39 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 36 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 46 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 23 | under |