Joe Burrow

CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Passing TDs · 1.5 at ESPN Bet ·

51Signal · over 1.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

7 / 10

How the formula reads this game

pass attempts: 37.8 a game recently

Expected passing tds: 2.2 against 1.5 · over 51%, under 49%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 1.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026

Worst miss -1.5

Each game against 1.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-12-07	BUF	4 over	+2.5
2025-12-14	BAL	0 under	−1.5
2025-12-21	MIA	4 over	+2.5
2025-12-28	ARI	2 over	+0.5
2026-01-04	CLE	3 over	+1.5
2026-09-13	TB	1 under	−0.5
2026-09-20	HOU	2 over	+0.5
2026-09-27	PIT	3 over	+1.5
2026-10-04	JAX	1 under	−0.5
2026-10-11	MIA	4 over	+2.5

The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	7 / 10	70% over	+0.9
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

1.510 books, no line disagreementMGM · BB · PX2 · BR · HR · FD · DK · ESPN · FAN · FL· best price at 1.5: MGM -165

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 1.5
2026-10-11	@ MIA	4	over
2026-10-04	vs JAX	1	under
2026-09-27	@ PIT	3	over
2026-09-20	@ HOU	2	over
2026-09-13	vs TB	1	under
2026-01-04	vs CLE	3	over
2025-12-28	vs ARI	2	over
2025-12-21	@ MIA	4	over
2025-12-14	vs BAL	0	under
2025-12-07	@ BUF	4	over
2025-11-27	@ BAL	2	over
2025-09-14	vs JAX	1	under
2025-09-07	@ CLE	1	under