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Joe Burrow
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 6.5 at Fliff ·
50Signal · under 6.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 3.0 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 9.6 yds against 6.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 6.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -13 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 0 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 5 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 6 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 2 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 17 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 20 over | +13.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | -1 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 13 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 6 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 10 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
6.55 books, no line disagreementDK · FD · HR · FL · PP
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 8.5 to 6.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 6.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 10 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 6 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 13 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | -1 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 20 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 17 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 6 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 5 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 8 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 3 | under |