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Justin Jefferson

MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receptions · 6.5 at BetMGM · median 5.5 ·

61Signal · under 6.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
3 straight under

How the formula reads this game

  • targets: 6.0 a game recently

Expected receptions: 4.8 against 6.5 · over 39%, under 61%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.

Last 10 games against 6.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026

Worst miss -1.5 on the under
6.52025-11-30 at SEA: 2, under 6.5 by 4.52SEA2025-12-07 vs WAS: 2, under 6.5 by 4.52WAS2025-12-14 at DAL: 2, under 6.5 by 4.52DAL2025-12-21 at NYG: 6, under 6.5 by 0.56NYG2025-12-25 vs DET: 4, under 6.5 by 2.54DET2026-01-04 vs GB: 8, over 6.5 by 1.58GB2026-09-13 vs GB: 8, over 6.5 by 1.58GB2026-09-20 at CHI: 3, under 6.5 by 3.53CHI2026-09-27 at TB: 2, under 6.5 by 4.52TB2026-10-11 at NO: 6, under 6.5 by 0.56NO
Each game against 6.5
DateOpponentResultMargin
2025-11-30SEA2 under−4.5
2025-12-07WAS2 under−4.5
2025-12-14DAL2 under−4.5
2025-12-21NYG6 under−0.5
2025-12-25DET4 under−2.5
2026-01-04GB8 over+1.5
2026-09-13GB8 over+1.5
2026-09-20CHI3 under−3.5
2026-09-27TB2 under−4.5
2026-10-11NO6 under−0.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

WindowHitsRateAvg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro) Pro
Last 108 / 1080% under+2.2
Last 20 (with DPB Pro) Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) Pro
Home (with DPB Pro) Pro

See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card

Book Range

10 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 6.5
  • Hard Rock Bet 5.5
  • FanDuel 5.5
  • betPARX 5.5
  • BetRivers 5.5
  • ESPN Bet 5.5
  • Fliff 5.5
  • Bally Bet 5.5
  • DraftKings 5.5
  • Fanatics 6.5 (easiest number)
  • BetMGM 6.5 (easiest number)

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

DateOpponentResultvs 6.5
2026-10-11@ NO6under
2026-09-27@ TB2under
2026-09-20@ CHI3under
2026-09-13vs GB8over
2026-01-04vs GB8over
2025-12-25vs DET4under
2025-12-21@ NYG6under
2025-12-14@ DAL2under
2025-12-07vs WAS2under
2025-11-30@ SEA2under
2025-11-23@ GB4under
2025-11-16vs CHI5under
2025-11-09vs BAL4under
2025-11-02@ DET6under
2025-10-23@ LAC7over
2025-10-19vs PHI5under
2025-10-05@ CLE7over
2025-09-28@ PIT10over
2025-09-21vs CIN5under
2025-09-14vs ATL3under
2025-09-08@ CHI4under