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Justin Jefferson
MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 5.5 at Fliff ·
57Signal · under 5.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.8 against 5.5 · over 43%, under 57%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 5.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -2.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | SEA | 2 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | WAS | 2 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | DAL | 2 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYG | 6 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DET | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | GB | 8 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | GB | 8 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CHI | 3 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | TB | 2 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NO | 6 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +1.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 6.5
- Hard Rock Bet 5.5
- FanDuel 5.5
- betPARX 5.5
- BetRivers 5.5
- ESPN Bet 5.5
- Fliff 5.5
- Bally Bet 5.5
- DraftKings 5.5
- Fanatics 6.5 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 6.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ NO | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ TB | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ CHI | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs GB | 8 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs GB | 8 | over |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DET | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ NYG | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ DAL | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs WAS | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ SEA | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ GB | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CHI | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs BAL | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ DET | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-23 | @ LAC | 7 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs PHI | 5 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CLE | 7 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ PIT | 10 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs CIN | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs ATL | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | @ CHI | 4 | under |