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Juwan Johnson
NO vs PIT · Sun 9:30 AM ETReceptions · 3.5 at ESPN Bet ·
49Signal · over 3.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.7 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.2 against 3.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CAR | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYJ | 8 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | TEN | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ATL | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | DET | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LV | 8 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | ATL | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIN | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYG | 0 under | −3.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +0.9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
3.511 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · FD · HR · BB · DK · ESPN · FL · MGM · PP · UD· best price at 3.5: PX2 -121
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ NYG | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs MIN | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-05 | vs ATL | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LV | 8 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ BAL | 4 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ DET | 3 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ ATL | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ TEN | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NYJ | 8 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CAR | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ TB | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ MIA | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs ATL | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ CAR | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ LA | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TB | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ CHI | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs NE | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs NYG | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ BUF | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ SEA | 6 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SF | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs ARI | 8 | over |