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Keaton Mitchell
LAC @ LA · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 6.5 at Hard Rock Bet · median 7.5 ·
53Signal · under 6.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.5 a game recently
- vs LA · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 8.8 yds against 6.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 6.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -17 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CIN | 0 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NE | 0 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | GB | 7 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PIT | 0 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ARI | 0 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LV | 15 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BUF | -5 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SEA | 24 over | +17.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DEN | 18 over | +11.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | KC | 0 under | −6.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
6 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 7.5
- FanDuel 6.5
- Hard Rock Bet 6.5
- DraftKings 7.5 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 7.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 7.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 7.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 6.5 to 7.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 6.5 to 7.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 6.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ KC | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DEN | 18 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SEA | 24 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ BUF | -5 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs LV | 15 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ARI | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PIT | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-27 | @ GB | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NE | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ CIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs PIT | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | vs CIN | 12 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NYJ | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ CLE | 23 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 7 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 5 | under |