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Keaton Mitchell
LAC @ LA · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at BetMGM ·
52Signal · under 1.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.5 a game recently
Expected receptions: 2.0 against 1.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CIN | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NE | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | GB | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PIT | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ARI | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LV | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BUF | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SEA | 5 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DEN | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | KC | 0 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.55 books, no line disagreementDK · ESPN · HR · FD · MGM
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ KC | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DEN | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SEA | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ BUF | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs LV | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ARI | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PIT | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-27 | @ GB | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NE | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ CIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs PIT | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | vs CIN | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NYJ | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ CLE | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 1 | under |