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Keaton Mitchell
LAC @ LA · Sun 4:05 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 25.5 at Hard Rock Bet · median 24.5 ·
49Signal · over 25.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 5.8 a game recently
- targets: 2.5 a game recently
- vs LA · ×0.99 yds per carry
- vs LA · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 31.8 yds against 25.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 25.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -23| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CIN | 66 over | +40.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NE | 13 under | −12.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | GB | 38 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PIT | 2 under | −23.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ARI | 9 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LV | 39 over | +13.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BUF | 47 over | +21.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SEA | 63 over | +37.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DEN | 29 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | KC | 4 under | −21.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
5 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 24.5 · best price FD -114
- FanDuel 24.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetMGM 24.5 -120 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 24.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 25.5 -110
- DraftKings 26.5 -111
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 24.5 to 25.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 25.5 to 26.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 25.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ KC | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DEN | 29 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SEA | 63 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ BUF | 47 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs LV | 39 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ARI | 9 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PIT | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-27 | @ GB | 38 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NE | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ CIN | 66 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs PIT | 76 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs CIN | 31 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NYJ | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ CLE | 54 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 31 | over |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 18 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 43 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 13 | under |