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Keaton Mitchell
LAC @ LA · Sun 4:05 PM ETRushing Yards · 14.5 at Hard Rock Bet · median 15.5 ·
51Signal · over 14.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 5.8 a game recently
- vs LA · ×0.99 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 23.0 yds against 14.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 14.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -12| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CIN | 66 over | +51.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NE | 13 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | GB | 31 over | +16.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PIT | 2 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ARI | 9 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LV | 24 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BUF | 52 over | +37.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SEA | 39 over | +24.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DEN | 11 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | KC | 4 under | −10.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +11 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
7 books · 1 yds spread
- FanDuel 14.5
- Hard Rock Bet 14.5
- Underdog 14.5
- ESPN Bet 15.5
- DraftKings 15.5
- DK Pick6 15.5
- PrizePicks 15.5
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 14.5 to 15.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 14.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ KC | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DEN | 11 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SEA | 39 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ BUF | 52 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs LV | 24 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ARI | 9 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PIT | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-27 | @ GB | 31 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NE | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ CIN | 66 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs PIT | 76 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs CIN | 19 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NYJ | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ CLE | 31 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 31 | over |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 43 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 8 | under |