Khalil Herbert

ATL vs CIN · Sun 9:30 AM ET

Rush + Rec Yards · 16.5 ·

50Signal · under 16.560% · 3 / 5 · last 10 · the formula's chance

2 / 5

Underdog 16.5 ·

Brian Robinson RB is listed Out (hamstring). He had 30% of ATL's carries this season, 8.8 a game over 6.

The game history below does not account for this absence.

How the formula reads this game

carries: 4.0 a game recently → 4.7 this game
targets: 1.1 a game recently
Robinson out · +0.7 carries (8% of his 8.8)
vs CIN · ×1.06 yds per carry
Heavier load · ×0.98 yds per carry

Expected rush + rec yards: 23.0 yds against 16.5 · over 50%, under 50%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 2 this season.

Last 10 games against 16.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026

Worst miss -29 on the under

Each game against 16.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2025-12-14	JAX	5 under	−11.5
2025-12-28	NE	5 under	−11.5
2026-01-04	BUF	46 over	+29.5
2026-10-25	SF	28 over	+11.5
2026-11-01	TB	15 under	−1.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	3 / 5	60% under	-3
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

16.5Underdog· one book

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 16.5
2026-11-01	@ TB	15	under
2026-10-25	vs SF	28	over
2026-01-04	@ BUF	46	over
2025-12-28	vs NE	5	under
2025-12-14	@ JAX	5	under