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Michael Penix Jr.
ATL @ TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETCompletions · 19.5 · median of 9 books ·
54Signal · under 19.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 28.8 a game recently
Expected completions: 19.2 against 19.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 19.5 · Oct 13, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -5.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | BUF | 20 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | SF | 21 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | NE | 22 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | IND | 12 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | CAR | 13 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | GB | 18 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | NO | 15 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL | 19 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CHI | 19 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | SF | 25 over | +5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +1.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
19.59 books, no line disagreementBB · PX2 · BR · MGM · HR · DK · ESPN · FAN · PP
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 20.5 to 19.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 19.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs SF | 25 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs CHI | 19 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs BAL | 19 | under |
| 2026-10-05 | @ NO | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-24 | @ GB | 18 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CAR | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ IND | 12 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NE | 22 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ SF | 21 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | vs BUF | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs WAS | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CAR | 18 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIN | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TB | 27 | over |