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Khalil Shakir
BUF vs BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 39.5 at Underdog ·
52Signal · under 39.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.3 a game recently
- vs BAL · ×1.03 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 49.9 yds against 39.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 39.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -42 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | CIN | 16 under | −23.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NE | 65 over | +25.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CLE | 34 under | −5.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | PHI | 35 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | HOU | 50 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-09-17 | DET | 38 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LAC | 6 under | −33.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NE | 82 over | +42.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | LA | 80 over | +40.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LV | 34 under | −5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
2 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 40.5
- Underdog 39.5
- PrizePicks 40.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 39.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ LV | 34 | under |
| 2026-10-12 | @ LA | 80 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NE | 82 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LAC | 6 | under |
| 2026-09-17 | vs DET | 38 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ HOU | 50 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs PHI | 35 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CLE | 34 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NE | 65 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs CIN | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ PIT | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-20 | @ HOU | 110 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs TB | -3 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIA | 58 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs KC | 43 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ CAR | 88 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | @ ATL | 33 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs NE | 45 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs NO | 69 | over |
| 2025-09-18 | vs MIA | 45 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NYJ | 12 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs BAL | 64 | over |