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Luther Burden III
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 61.5 · median of 2 books ·
45Signal · over 61.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
- Kyle Monangai RB is listed Out (thumb). He had 38% of CHI's carries this season, 15.0 a game over 4.
Luther's carries without Kyle Monangai: 2.0 a game (2 games), against 0.5 with him (19).
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 1.2 a game recently
- targets: 7.2 a game recently
- vs NE · ×0.97 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 62.1 yds against 61.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 61.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -29| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | GB | 70 over | +8.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 84 over | +22.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 138 over | +76.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 45 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 65 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 32 under | −29.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | PHI | 68 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYJ | 74 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | GB | 49 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 95 over | +33.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +11 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
61.52 books, no line disagreementMGM · PP
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 62.5 to 61.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 62.5 to 61.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 61.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 95 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ GB | 49 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NYJ | 74 | over |
| 2026-09-28 | vs PHI | 68 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 32 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 65 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 45 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 138 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 84 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 70 | over |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 36 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 61 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 27 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 51 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | -1 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 21 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 51 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | -4 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 108 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | -3 | under |