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D'Andre Swift
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETCarries · 14.5 · median of 9 books ·
63Signal · over 14.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
- Kyle Monangai RB is listed Out (thumb). He had 38% of CHI's carries this season, 15.0 a game over 4.
D'Andre's carries without Kyle Monangai: 12.5 a game (2 games), against 14.6 with him (20).
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 15.7 a game recently → 24.8 this game
- Monangai out · +9.1 carries (61% of his 15)
Expected carries: 24.8 against 14.5 · over 63%, under 37%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 14.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -5.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 18 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 13 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 9 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 10 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 18 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 16 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | PHI | 20 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYJ | 15 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | GB | 9 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 16 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | -0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
14.59 books, no line disagreementESPN · DK · MGM · HR · PX2 · FL · BB · PP · UD· best price at 14.5: ESPN -105
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 14.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 16 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ GB | 9 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NYJ | 15 | over |
| 2026-09-28 | vs PHI | 20 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 16 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 18 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 9 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 18 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 18 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 21 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 13 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 19 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 14 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 14 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 12 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 17 | over |