← NFL board
Luther Burden III
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETReceiving Yards · 57.5 · median of 11 books ·
45Signal · over 57.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.2 a game recently
- vs NE · ×0.97 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 58.5 yds against 57.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 57.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -25| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | GB | 67 over | +9.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 84 over | +26.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 138 over | +80.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 35 under | −22.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 63 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 32 under | −25.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | PHI | 61 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYJ | 63 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | GB | 47 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 95 over | +37.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +11 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 54.5
- ESPN Bet 54.5 -125 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 55.5 -115
- FanDuel 56.5 -113
- betPARX 57.5 -112
- DraftKings 57.5 -112
- BetRivers 57.5 -113
- Bally Bet 57.5 -117
- Fliff 57.5 -125
- DK Pick6 57.5
- PrizePicks 57.5
- Hard Rock Bet 59.5 -115
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 57.5 to 56.5
- Bally BetMoved from 59.5 to 57.5
- betPARXMoved from 59.5 to 57.5
- BetRiversMoved from 59.5 to 57.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 56.5 to 57.5
- FliffMoved from 56.5 to 57.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 55.5 to 57.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 56.5 to 57.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 57.5 to 59.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 57.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 95 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ GB | 47 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NYJ | 63 | over |
| 2026-09-28 | vs PHI | 61 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 32 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 63 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 35 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 138 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 84 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 67 | over |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 33 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 46 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 27 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 51 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | -1 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 22 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 51 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | -4 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 101 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | -3 | under |