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Malik Willis
MIA vs DET · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 5.5 at Underdog ·
45Signal · over 5.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 5.1 a game recently
Expected carries: 5.1 against 5.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 5.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026
Worst miss -4.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | MIN | 2 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | CHI | 10 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | BAL | 9 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LV | 6 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SF | 2 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | KC | 9 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | MIN | 2 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CIN | 8 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NYJ | 8 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | NE | 1 under | −4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | vs NE | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-25 | @ NYJ | 8 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CIN | 8 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ MIN | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs KC | 9 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ SF | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LV | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | vs BAL | 9 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | @ CHI | 10 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs MIN | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ NYG | 1 | under |