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Malik Willis
MIA vs NE · Sun 4:25 PM ETCompletions · 16.5 at Underdog ·
57Signal · under 16.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 25.2 a game recently
Expected completions: 14.5 against 16.5 · over 43%, under 57%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 16.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -3.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | NYG | 2 under | −14.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | MIN | 1 under | −15.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | CHI | 9 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | BAL | 18 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LV | 15 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SF | 14 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | KC | 20 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | MIN | 9 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CIN | 15 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NYJ | 14 under | −2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +4.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 16.5
- BetMGM 15.5
- ESPN Bet 16.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 16.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 16.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 16.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 16.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 16.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 16.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 16.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 16.5 (easiest number)
- Underdog 16.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ NYJ | 14 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CIN | 15 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ MIN | 9 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs KC | 20 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ SF | 14 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LV | 15 | under |
| 2025-12-27 | vs BAL | 18 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | @ CHI | 9 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs MIN | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ NYG | 2 | under |