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Marvin Harrison Jr.

HOU vs NYG · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 28.5 at BetMGM · median 29.5 ·

44Signal · over 28.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games

How the formula reads this game

  • targets: 3.6 a game recently
  • vs NYG · ×0.99 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 26.1 yds against 28.5 · over 44%, under 56%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 1 this season.

Last 10 games against 28.5 · Nov 3, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -28
28.52025-11-03 at DAL: 96, over 28.5 by 67.5 yds96DAL2025-11-09 at SEA: 33, over 28.5 by 4.5 yds33SEA2025-11-30 at TB: 69, over 28.5 by 40.5 yds69TB2025-12-21 vs ATL: 14, under 28.5 by 14.5 yds14ATL2025-12-28 at CIN: 0, under 28.5 by 28.5 yds0CIN2026-09-13 at LAC: 33, over 28.5 by 4.5 yds33LAC2026-09-20 vs SEA: 0, under 28.5 by 28.5 yds0SEA2026-09-27 at SF: 40, over 28.5 by 11.5 yds40SF2026-10-04 at NYG: 12, under 28.5 by 16.5 yds12NYG2026-10-18 at JAX: 34, over 28.5 by 5.5 yds34JAX
Each game against 28.5
DateOpponentResultMargin
2025-11-03DAL96 over+67.5
2025-11-09SEA33 over+4.5
2025-11-30TB69 over+40.5
2025-12-21ATL14 under−14.5
2025-12-28CIN0 under−28.5
2026-09-13LAC33 over+4.5
2026-09-20SEA0 under−28.5
2026-09-27SF40 over+11.5
2026-10-04NYG12 under−16.5
2026-10-18JAX34 over+5.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

WindowHitsRateAvg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro) Pro
Last 106 / 1060% over+5
Last 20 (with DPB Pro) Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) Pro
Home (with DPB Pro) Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

10 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 28.5
  • BetMGM 28.5 -135 (easiest number)
  • betPARX 29.5 -110
  • BetRivers 29.5 -112
  • FanDuel 29.5 -114
  • Bally Bet 29.5 -115
  • DraftKings 29.5 -115
  • ESPN Bet 29.5 -115
  • Hard Rock Bet 30.5 -110
  • Fliff 30.5 -115
  • PrizePicks 32.5

Line movement

  • PrizePicksMoved from 28.5 to 32.5

Game log

DateOpponentResultvs 28.5
2026-10-18@ JAX34over
2026-10-04@ NYG12under
2026-09-27@ SF40over
2026-09-20vs SEA0under
2026-09-13@ LAC33over
2025-12-28@ CIN0under
2025-12-21vs ATL14under
2025-11-30@ TB69over
2025-11-09@ SEA33over
2025-11-03@ DAL96over
2025-10-19vs GB58over
2025-10-12@ IND32over
2025-10-05vs TEN98over
2025-09-25vs SEA66over
2025-09-21@ SF44over
2025-09-14vs CAR27under
2025-09-07@ NO71over